Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 69 ‘Usman vs. Buckley’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship goes on the road to Hotlanta with a show that should have plenty of ups and downs. Most remarkable about UFC on ESPN 69, also known as UFC Atlanta, is the gap between most favorites and underdogs. Just three of the 13 matches see the favorite closer than -200, with one option the widest between two fighters in the promotion this year. If this is the shape of things to come, Prime Picks could get weird. This week, we present three underdogs with very distinct, achievable paths to victory, as well as one bout that should end in the blink of an eye.

Kamaru Usman (+235)

If there is a tactic that Joaquin Buckley must employ for all 25 minutes, it is whatever the term for “sprawl against takedowns and spam kicks.” It is not sprawl-and-brawl entirely, as Buckley will not want to remain in boxing range for long with the heavy-handed Usman. It has been a good while since Usman set foot in the cage, and while in that last outing he nearly turned the tables on Khamzat Chimaev on short notice, he ultimately lost. Three in a row is a tough stretch to come back from, and Usman is going from one frying pan to another with the uber-dangerous Buckley trying to take chunks out of him. Usman recently suggested that a match against Belal Muhammad would not be in his own best interest due to the condition of his knees, but there is some amount of sandbagging going into a statement like that. Given Usman’s ability to nullify some of the best fighters to have ever done it, at significant plus money—albeit nowhere near some of the wacky lines throughout the card—the best option is likely an Usman or pass type of play.

The takedown defense of “New Mansa” has largely help up to oncoming fire, with his last six foes grounding him a combined two times in 13 attempts. The squat nature of Buckley plus his sheer horsepower, the type that can shove away a blast double at the right moment, is something that has served him well at welterweight. It will be in his best interest to stay as far away from the cage as possible, and the larger Octagon in Atlanta will be a boon to him. Even if Usman is unable to put Buckley on his back more than once or twice, the looming threat may take away some of the commitment on Buckley’s strikes. It will be up to Usman to get into Buckley’s head to discourage him from throwing his flashy strikes, and not get caught upside the noggin with a head kick a la Leon Edwards.

Andre Petroski (+153)

The type of fighter that Petroski is remains a kryptonite for former Glendale Fighting Club member Edmen Shahbazyan, who still struggles with his cardio at this stage of his career. Petroski can not only push a pace, but other than Michel Pereira, no one has gotten the hammer-and-sickle tattooed fighter out of there quickly. Even if Petroski is capable of getting clubbed, his own smart approach may not let that happen in the first place. Shahbazyan’s best round is always his first, and Petroski could throw water on that by putting “The Golden Boy” on his seat early and forcing him to waste energy trying to stand. Mat returns and pressing his weight on Shahbazyan will be essential in Petroski trying to wear the younger fighter out, and based on everything he has shown in the Octagon thus far, he can embrace the grind and keep his chin tucked long enough to outlast Shahbazyan.

On paper, a few places stand out as problems for Shahbazyan despite his designation as the betting favorite. For starters, the 27-year-old is hittable, absorbing more strikes than he dishes out. Additionally, landing the first takedown on Shahbazyan is crucial, because once the first succeeds, the next should come easier. While earlier in his career, “The Golden Boy” may have maintained a more wrestling-centric approach, he has found that as the level of opposition rose, so did the number of failed takedown attempts he made. When compared to Petroski, the latter is a much more bread-and-butter, tried-and-true grappler who prefers position over submission and wants to sap the life out of his foe before putting them away. That is just the type of foil that can get over on Shahbazyan.

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-200)

Sometimes the UFC establishes setup fights, in the hopes of getting one burgeoning fighter over a name. Such is the case for the MMA Masters product Abdul-Malik, who is climbing up the rankings at 185 pounds and now encounters the much-maligned Brundage. The actual moneyline on this matchup is prohibitive, with Abdul-Malik coming in around -850 to Brundage’s +550 on the comeback. Given Brundage’s propensity for unfortunate, unlucky situations to present themselves mid-fight, a bet on him by TKO/KO/DQ around +950 is a flier some could make. Otherwise, knock down the line to something more manageable, suggesting that these two will be done fighting by the midpoint of the second round.

Just twice in the eight-fight career of the Maryland native has he fought beyond 2:30 of the second stanza, but it is unfortunate for prospective bettors those two instances have taken place in his last three fights. It is, however, fortunate for Abdul-Malik that he draws Brundage, who is going to stay in his face or swinging for the fences as long as he remains upright. Brundage has surpassed that over three times in his 11-fight tenure, and the ones that drew out quick stoppages were generally the types that took it to him. Whether he can clip and put away the undefeated youngster, or Brundage goes down in a heap, as long as it comes quickly, the rest is gravy.

Alonzo Menifield (+475)

Rarely has a more dangerous fighter come into a matchup at this substantial of a betting discrepancy. This isn’t some low-tier lightweight pairing where one comes in undefeated while the other hails from New England on short notice. Instead, a proven yet flawed competitor in Menifield will serve as the biggest underdog of his career against France’s Oumar Sy. The unbeaten 29-year-old has not proved himself as someone that can hang at the top echelon of light heavyweight who runs through the likes of Menifield. The best win for Sy is his last effort, a one-sided decision over the skidding Da Woon Jung. Meanwhile, Menifield is not too far removed from beating names like Jimmy Crute and Dustin Jacoby. This line looks off for a reason.

To give Menifield a simple “puncher’s chance” in this match would do a disservice to his explosion-based skillset. “Atomic Alonzo” rarely takes half measures, even putting his own chin on the gunnery range when overly confident in his abilities. That has let him to trouble against sharper foes like Carlos Ulberg, and there is no doubt that Menifield will have to break through an outer perimeter defense of about seven inches to get his hands on his opponent. While Menifield can ragdoll foes like the best of them, if he grounds Sy, he will be the first on the major stage to do so and will almost immediately have to fight off submission attempts. On the other hand, how does one take an explosive striker out of their game? Put them on their back. If Sy can grind this one out, he can defuse the violent Texan, but every moment it remains standing is one where his block could be knocked into the first row.